When to buy your olive oil: the right timing

Q: When to buy your olive oil at the best price?

The best price plays out at the start of the season , after the harvest, when the new prices are set: November to March for the northern Mediterranean. Volumes are available, the oil is fresh and the balance of power allows negotiation. Conversely, the lean period (September-October) is the most strained time. This calendar is not a trick

Q: When is olive oil cheapest?

Prices are set at the start of the season (November-March), after the harvest. In the case of a good harvest, that is often the most favourable time to secure volumes. The lean period (September-October), with stocks at their lowest, is generally the most strained and most expensive time.

Q: Why does the EU quota change the right time to buy?

The Tunisian tariff quota at reduced duty is exhausted every year . Once saturated, the out-of-quota duty applies and heavily increases the landed price. For EU import, you therefore have to file your certificates early , independently of the FOB price.

Q: How much does Tunisian olive oil cost at the start of the season?

From ~€3.80/kg FOB in bulk extra virgin at origin, excluding freight, insurance and duties. The exact level depends on the harvest, the category and the variety. Follow developments on our price observatory. --- Preparing your next buying season? Request a dated quote: we reply within 24-48h with a quotation by format and Incoterm, aligne

When to buy your olive oil: the right timing

Article

In brief. The best time to buy bulk olive oil is at the start of the season, when the new harvest sets prices: from November to March for the northern Mediterranean. That is the window when oil is freshest, volumes are available and negotiation is best. Conversely, the lean period (September-October), with stocks at their lowest, is the most strained time. Add a key factor for EU import: the tariff quota at reduced duty saturates every year — filing early makes all the difference on landed price.

Buying olive oil at the wrong time means paying more for a less fresh oil, with less choice. Good news: the market follows a readable annual cycle, paced by the harvest. Understanding this calendar lets you secure your volumes at the right price, rather than buying under pressure. Here is how to set your timing.

When to buy your olive oil at the best price?

The best price plays out at the start of the season, after the harvest, when the new prices are set: November to March for the northern Mediterranean. Volumes are available, the oil is fresh and the balance of power allows negotiation. Conversely, the lean period (September-October) is the most strained time.

This calendar is not a trick: it follows from the life cycle of the oil. Olive oil is a living product that oxidises over time. Buying fresh means buying an oil that will keep longer at your premises, with low acidity and a low peroxide value.

The olive season calendar

Olive oil follows an annual cycle paced by the northern hemisphere harvest. Here are the four phases to know in order to position your purchase.

Phase	Period (indicative)	What happens	For the buyer
Harvest	October → February	Pressing of the new season, fresh oil	Prices are set according to harvested volume
Start of season	November → March	New prices stabilising	Ideal window to secure volumes and negotiate
Mid-season	April → August	Stocks being consumed	Prices may rise if the harvest was weak
Lean period	September → October	Stocks at their lowest before the new harvest	Most strained period on prices

In practice, a savvy buyer prepares the season from the autumn, discusses the first harvest estimates with suppliers, and commits volumes once the new prices are published. Waiting for mid-season means taking the risk of a rise if the harvest disappointed.

The trap of the lean period

The lean period is the hollow stretch between the exhaustion of the old season's stocks and the arrival of the new oil. Concretely, from September to October, supply becomes scarce and prices rise.

Buying in the lean period often means:

Paying the highest price of the year.
Finding less choice in category and variety.
Receiving end-of-season oil, therefore older.

If your need falls during the lean period, the solution is not to wait: it is to have contracted earlier, at the start of the previous season. A volume contract or an early purchase shelters you from this seasonal strain.

Alternate bearing: why every other year matters

Olive trees produce on an alternate-bearing rhythm: a strong harvest year is often followed by a weaker one. This natural phenomenon accentuates the price cycles from one season to the next.

Concretely, a weak year in the major basins (drought, frost, alternate bearing) drives world prices up. In 2024-2025, Tunisia had a record harvest, which eased its supply at a time when other origins were suffering. Hence the value of diversifying origins and following harvest forecasts before buying.

To situate the current levels, rely on dated benchmarks: Tunisia starts around ~€3.80/kg FOB in bulk extra virgin. Follow developments on our price observatory, updated monthly.

The factor that changes everything for EU import: the quota that saturates

If you import into the European Union, one element takes precedence over seasonality: the Tunisian tariff quota at reduced duty. This annual quota (TRQ) allows entry at a heavily reduced duty — but it is exhausted every year, and often early in the year.

The consequence is direct: once the quota saturates, the out-of-quota duty applies and heavily increases the landed price. Two buyers can pay the same FOB price and yet show a very different landed cost depending on whether they are in-quota or out-of-quota.

The rule: anticipate the filing of the certificates as soon as it opens, do not wait. The workings of the EU quota detail the deadlines, and the landed cost calculator quantifies the gap between in-quota and out-of-quota before you commit.

Insert: the 3 angles of the same timing

Buyer/importer side: buy at the start of the season for freshness and price, and secure the EU quota early if you import into the Union. Buying timing and customs timing are two distinct clocks.
Exporter side: the start of the season is when you commit your firm volumes; a buyer who contracts early gives you the visibility to block the best lots.
Cash side: buying early ties up cash longer, but protects against volatility. A multi-year or staggered contract smooths this trade-off.

The most costly timing mistake

Buying piecemeal, under pressure, without matching your need to the calendar. You then end up ordering in the lean period, out-of-quota, at the high price, on end-of-season oil. The per-kilo price looks "in the market", but the landed cost and freshness are poor.

Conversely, planning your purchase upstream — estimating your annual need, following harvest forecasts, contracting at the start of the season, filing early for the quota — turns an imposed purchase into a controlled one.

FAQ

When is olive oil cheapest?

Prices are set at the start of the season (November-March), after the harvest. In the case of a good harvest, that is often the most favourable time to secure volumes. The lean period (September-October), with stocks at their lowest, is generally the most strained and most expensive time.

Should you buy your olive oil fresh?

Yes. Olive oil is a product that oxidises over time. Buying new-season oil means starting from low acidity and a low peroxide value, hence an oil that will keep longer at your premises, even before your own storage.

What is the lean period on the olive oil market?

The lean period is the hollow stretch between the exhaustion of the old season's stocks and the arrival of the new oil, generally September-October in the northern hemisphere. Supply becomes scarce, prices rise and choice narrows.

Why does the EU quota change the right time to buy?

The Tunisian tariff quota at reduced duty is exhausted every year. Once saturated, the out-of-quota duty applies and heavily increases the landed price. For EU import, you therefore have to file your certificates early, independently of the FOB price.

Does olive tree alternate bearing influence prices?

Yes. A strong harvest year is often followed by a weaker one. This alternate bearing accentuates the price cycles from one season to the next. Following harvest forecasts and diversifying origins helps smooth this volatility.

How much does Tunisian olive oil cost at the start of the season?

From ~€3.80/kg FOB in bulk extra virgin at origin, excluding freight, insurance and duties. The exact level depends on the harvest, the category and the variety. Follow developments on our price observatory.

Preparing your next buying season? Request a dated quote: we reply within 24-48h with a quotation by format and Incoterm, aligned with the current season. To secure the whole process, see our guide to securing your first import.