World Olive Oil Price Trends (2026)

Q: What is the trend of world prices in 2026?

In 2026, the dominant trend is an easing of prices compared with the peaks of previous campaigns. After several years marked by drought and weak harvests in the Mediterranean, the new campaign is rebuilding stocks. A more abundant supply mechanically weighs on prices at origin. This easing nonetheless remains fragile . Olive oil depends o

Q: Seasonality: when are prices lowest?

Olive oil follows an annual cycle paced by the Mediterranean harvest. Understanding this calendar helps to buy at the right time. - Harvest (October → February) — pressing of the new campaign; prices set according to the harvested volume. - Start of campaign (November → March) — key period to secure volumes and negotiate; the new prices s

Q: What is the trend of olive oil prices in 2026?

In July 2026, the trend is towards easing after several tight campaigns, thanks to an abundant harvest that rebuilds supply. This drop remains fragile: it depends on the volume of the next harvest. Track prices on the price observatory.

Q: What is the price of bulk olive oil by origin?

At origin, in bulk extra virgin: from ~€3.80/kg for Tunisia, ~€4.10 for Spain, ~€4.30 for Greece and ~€6.50 for Italy. These prices exclude freight, duties and VAT.

Q: Why do olive oil prices vary so much?

The 1 factor is the harvest (volume and yield), amplified by the natural alternate bearing of olive trees. Added to this are origin, category, organic, exchange rate, freight and access to the EU quota. A single annual harvest cycle makes the market structurally volatile.

Q: When is olive oil cheapest?

Prices set at the start of campaign (November–March), after the harvest. In a good harvest year, this is often the most favourable time to secure volumes. The lean season (September–October), with stocks at their lowest, is generally the most tight period.

Q: Why is Tunisian olive oil cheaper?

Tunisia combines a competitive production cost , large volumes (world 2) and awarded quality. At equivalent extra virgin quality, it offers the lowest entry price — to the point of supplying other basins. Details on the origins comparison.

Analysis

In brief. In July 2026, world olive oil prices are easing after several tight campaigns: the record Northern hemisphere harvest — including Tunisian production estimated at 400-500 kt — is rebuilding supply. At origin, in bulk extra virgin, Tunisia trades from ~€3.80/kg, Spain from ~€4.10, Greece from ~€4.30 and Italy from ~€6.50. For an importer, the window is favourable — but the market remains volatile and dependent on the next harvest.

The price of olive oil is never fixed: it moves from one campaign to the next, sometimes from one week to the next. Understanding the underlying trends and the factors that drive them helps to quote accurately and buy at the right time. Here is the state of world prices and their outlook — all dated and to be re-checked at the source.

What is the trend of world prices in 2026?

In 2026, the dominant trend is an easing of prices compared with the peaks of previous campaigns. After several years marked by drought and weak harvests in the Mediterranean, the new campaign is rebuilding stocks. A more abundant supply mechanically weighs on prices at origin.

This easing nonetheless remains fragile. Olive oil depends on a single annual harvest cycle in the Northern hemisphere: a climate accident on the following campaign can reverse the trend within a few months. Track prices month by month on our price observatory.

Prices by origin: the comparison (bulk, extra virgin)

Prices at origin vary strongly from one basin to another, depending on production costs and positioning. Indicative ranges at July 2026 — (bulk, extra virgin, excluding freight, duties and VAT):

Origin	Bulk origin price (€/kg)	Flagship variety	Positioning
Tunisia	from 3.80 (3.80–4.00)	Chemlali / Chetoui	Best value for money, world #2
Spain (Jaén)	from 4.10 (4.10–4.50)	Picual	World reference volume
Greece (Crete)	from 4.30 (4.30–4.40)	Koroneiki	Niche premium
Italy (Puglia)	from 6.50 (6.50–7.00)	Coratina	Premium brand, expensive

Quick read: Tunisia shows the lowest entry price at equivalent extra virgin quality. This is one of the reasons it supplies other basins that re-export or bottle its oil — detailed analysis on the origins comparison page.

What moves world prices

Several variables drive prices constantly. The main drivers of variation:

Harvest & yield — this is the #1 factor. A small harvest (drought, frost, alternate bearing of olive trees) pushes prices up; a record harvest eases them.
Alternate bearing — the olive tree naturally produces strongly one year, weakly the next. This alternation accentuates the price cycles from one campaign to another.
Carryover stocks — the volume remaining at the end of the campaign cushions or aggravates a harvest shortfall.
Origin & category — each basin has its price level; extra virgin sells higher than virgin or lampante.
Organic vs conventional — organic oil trades with a premium tied to the certified production method.
€/USD/TND exchange rate — for a buyer outside the euro zone, the parity changes the final cost.
Quotas & customs — access to the EU tariff quota (reduced duty, exhausted each year) strongly changes the delivered price.
Freight & energy — the cost of sea transport and energy weighs on the delivered price, not on the origin price.

Seasonality: when are prices lowest?

Olive oil follows an annual cycle paced by the Mediterranean harvest. Understanding this calendar helps to buy at the right time.

Harvest (October → February) — pressing of the new campaign; prices set according to the harvested volume.
Start of campaign (November → March) — key period to secure volumes and negotiate; the new prices stabilise.
Mid-campaign (April → August) — stocks are consumed; prices can rise if the harvest was weak.
Lean season (September → October) — stocks at their lowest before the new harvest; this is often the most tight period.

Key takeaway: in a good harvest year, the start of campaign often offers the best price-availability combination.

Outlook: what to expect?

No one can predict a price with certainty — and we do not fabricate any numerical projection. What can be said, based on dated data: after a record campaign, downward pressure dominates as long as stocks rebuild. The risk of a rebound will come from the next harvest if it disappoints.

For a buyer, the practical consequence is simple: take advantage of an easing window to secure volumes early, rather than waiting for a hypothetical drop in the lean season.

The mistake to avoid

Reasoning "shelf price" when buying in bulk. Origin prices, in bulk, have nothing to do with the price of a bottle on the shelf: between the two are added freight, insurance, customs duties, VAT and the chain's margins. Always break down your delivered price line by line before comparing.

FAQ

What is the trend of olive oil prices in 2026?

In July 2026, the trend is towards easing after several tight campaigns, thanks to an abundant harvest that rebuilds supply. This drop remains fragile: it depends on the volume of the next harvest. Track prices on the price observatory.

What is the price of bulk olive oil by origin?

At origin, in bulk extra virgin: from ~€3.80/kg for Tunisia, ~€4.10 for Spain, ~€4.30 for Greece and ~€6.50 for Italy. These prices exclude freight, duties and VAT.

Why do olive oil prices vary so much?

The #1 factor is the harvest (volume and yield), amplified by the natural alternate bearing of olive trees. Added to this are origin, category, organic, exchange rate, freight and access to the EU quota. A single annual harvest cycle makes the market structurally volatile.

When is olive oil cheapest?

Prices set at the start of campaign (November–March), after the harvest. In a good harvest year, this is often the most favourable time to secure volumes. The lean season (September–October), with stocks at their lowest, is generally the most tight period.

Why is Tunisian olive oil cheaper?

Tunisia combines a competitive production cost, large volumes (world #2) and awarded quality. At equivalent extra virgin quality, it offers the lowest entry price — to the point of supplying other basins. Details on the origins comparison.

Will prices fall or rise?

We publish no numerical forecast. After a record harvest, downward pressure dominates as long as stocks rebuild; a rebound would come from a disappointing next harvest. The right reaction is to secure volumes early rather than wait for a hypothetical drop.

Want to take advantage of the easing window? Request a dated quote: quotation per format, category and incoterm within 24-48h. Track prices month by month on the price observatory and compare origins on the comparison.

Article in English. Prices and trends are dated (July 2026) and; no data fabricated, no price projection manufactured, values taken from industry surveys.