Olive harvest 2026: 2026/27 olive oil forecast and campaign calendar
Short answer. The 2026 olive harvest has already started in late September in Tuscany, where the heat brought ripening forward; in Italy most picking happens in October-November, in Tunisia in November-December. September estimates: about -20% in Italy (Federolio) and about -40% in Tunisia after the 2025/26 record 🔴.
Data as of 27 September 2026. These are pre-harvest estimates: they can move sharply until milling ends. The International Olive Council (IOC) will publish its first official forecasts for the new campaign from November. Every figure below carries its source and date, and is flagged 🔴 when it has not been checked at the primary source.
When does the olive harvest start in 2026
The olive oil marketing year runs, by EU convention, from 1 October to 30 September; the harvest itself depends on how ripe the olives are, and in 2026 the heat has brought it forward.
| Area | 2026 harvest start | Source, date 🔴 |
|---|---|---|
| Tuscany (Val di Cornia) | Already under way in late September | La Nazione, 09/2026 |
| Italy, earliest areas | Olives ready from mid-September | Federolio, 16/09/2026 |
| Italy, main campaign | October-November, into December in some regions | Olio-Extra-Vergine.it, 26/08/2026 |
| Tunisia | Main harvest November-December; new-crop oil from November | OLYFO, 08/08/2026; Tunisian press, 09/2026 |
| Spain | To be documented (no official harvest date to date) | — |
Quick read: the climate-driven early start is real in Italy, while in Tunisia the dates remain the usual ones. There is no single date: picking starts first in hot, irrigated areas, then moves south and to higher ground.
2026/27 production forecast (September 2026 estimates)
| Area | 2026/27 estimate | 2025/26 reference | Source, date 🔴 |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | ~3.25 Mt (EU ~2.10 Mt) | IOC: ~3.44 Mt | USDA, August 2026; IOC |
| Italy | ~-20%, i.e. about 260,000 t (our calculation) | ~325,000 t (IOC) | Federolio, 16/09/2026 |
| Tunisia | 250,000-300,000 t (about -40%, as reported by the press) | ~500,000 t, record | National Chamber of Olive Producers, 03-04/09/2026 |
| Spain | No official estimate available; stocks falling fast, uneven flowering | ~1.37 Mt (2025/26 estimate 🔴) | L'Économiste Maghrébin, 24/09/2026 |
| Greece, Portugal | To be documented | — | — |
Italy. Federolio describes an "off" year (the low half of the olive alternate-bearing cycle): a drop of around 20% in Sicily, lower Calabria and Puglia; better prospects in Campania and upper Calabria; quality expected to be very good. In Tuscany, Val di Cornia growers report a harvest better than last year, with very little olive fly. Italian stocks stood at 233,377 t on 31/07/2026 (+43.9% year on year, ICQRF data reported by Olio-Extra-Vergine.it, 02/09/2026): the drop in output therefore starts from full warehouses.
Tunisia. The stated cause is the biennial alternate-bearing cycle of the olive tree after the exceptional 2025/26 year. A caution: sources quote the same estimate (250,000-300,000 t) sometimes as an olive harvest, sometimes as oil; the distinction must be checked before using it in a contract 🔴. Local outlooks are more nuanced: in the Zaghouan governorate the harvest is described as good, close to the previous year or slightly lower (La Presse, 20/09/2026). For the previous campaign in detail, see the 2025/26 Tunisian olive campaign and the olive harvest in Tunisia.
World and country estimates will be updated here as soon as the November IOC figures are out. For historical orders of magnitude, see the world production page; for the background on the world's No. 2 producer, the Tunisian olive oil guide.
Prices: where we are and where we are heading
| Reference (€/kg, at origin) | Value | Source, date 🔴 |
|---|---|---|
| Extra virgin Italy, July 2026 average | 5.12 (-46.7% year on year) | ISMEA via Olio-Extra-Vergine.it, 26/08/2026 |
| Extra virgin Italy, weekly average | 4.82 | market quote (third-party price list), 25/09/2026 |
| Extra virgin Spain | 3.40 | market quote (third-party price list), 25/09/2026 |
| Extra virgin Tunisia | 3.63 | market quote (third-party price list), 14/09/2026 |
| Extra virgin Tunisia, bulk FOB (observatory) | from ~3.80 | price observatory, July 2026 |
| Lampante Tunisia | 2.60 | market quote (third-party price list), 20/09/2026 |
These values are prices at origin taken from third-party price lists: they are neither FOB prices nor Zitouna Export offers. The monthly breakdown by origin is in the price observatory; for the cheapest grade, see lampante olive oil: definition and price.
Direction. Several Tunisian and European sources point to a possible rise in prices from late autumn 2026, tied to heat, drought and fires that hit several Mediterranean areas, and to the lower 2026/27 supply (La Presse, 04/09/2026; L'Économiste Maghrébin, 24/09/2026). A Tuscan producer also cites rising costs (diesel, labour, energy). These are forecasts, not certainties: with high Italian stocks and Spanish supply still uncertain, prices may stay flat. Real opening prices are set once milling is under way.
Tunisia: the 2025/26 starting point
Ahead of a smaller campaign, Tunisia closes a record year: about 381,200 t exported in 2025/26 (+50.8%) for TND 4,780.4 million (+41.2%) in revenue (L'Économiste Maghrébin, 24/09/2026 🔴, figures not yet cross-checked against ONH data). The president of the National Chamber of Producers also flags a storage problem: current capacity forces 40-50% of output to be sold on unfavourable terms at the start of the campaign. For a professional buyer, that means the start of the campaign can offer negotiation windows.
What it changes for buyers
- Secure early — with supply down and prices potentially rising, booking volumes at the start of the campaign reduces risk.
- Watch the EU quota — the 56,700-tonne reduced-duty quota for Tunisian oil opens at the start of the campaign and fills fast: plan ahead if you import into Europe (see the EU quota and SICAD guide).
- Organic window — organic volumes are more limited and often go first.
- 2025/26 stock quality — oil from the old campaign is close to a year in storage: always ask for a recent COA.
- Multi-year contracts — a commitment over several campaigns smooths the volatility caused by alternate bearing.
Want to secure a volume on the 2026/27 campaign? Request a dated quote with grade, format, incoterm and market.
Methodology & sources
- Sources cited (consulted 26-27/09/2026): Federolio (via Tasting Life, I Grandi Vini), La Nazione, Olio-Extra-Vergine.it (ISMEA, ICQRF, USDA), La Presse de Tunisie, Webdo, L'Économiste Maghrébin, OLYFO, IOC.
- Data status — pre-harvest estimates, often reported by the press and trade bodies rather than official surveys: very uncertain and fast-changing.
- Update — seasonal: when the first IOC estimates are published (November 2026), then when opening prices are set.
- No invented data — where a figure does not exist or cannot be verified, the cell stays "to be documented".
Buying to import? Zitouna Export is a bulk olive oil supplier shipping from Sfax: extra virgin, organic and private label, with a COA per batch. For a firm price, see buy olive oil in bulk and wholesale or request a quote.
Frequently asked questions
When does the olive harvest start in 2026?
It depends on the area. In 2026 the heat brought ripening forward: in Tuscany picking started in late September, and in other Italian areas the olives were ready from mid-September. The main Italian campaign is concentrated in October-November, the Tunisian one in November-December.
How much olive oil will Italy produce in 2026/27?
Federolio forecasts a drop of about 20% versus 2025/26 (around 325,000 t according to the IOC), i.e. roughly 260,000 t (our calculation). It is an "off" year, with quality expected to be very good. There is no final official estimate yet 🔴.
What will the 2026 olive harvest look like in Tunisia?
September estimates point to 250,000-300,000 t, about 40% less (as reported by the press) than the record of about 500,000 t in 2025/26, because of alternate bearing. In the Zaghouan governorate the harvest is described as good. Check whether the figure refers to olives or to oil 🔴.
Has the heat ruined the 2026 harvest?
Not necessarily. The heat brought ripening forward, but according to Federolio the growing conditions point to a campaign of very good quality; the expected drop in volume in Italy is attributed to the natural "off" year, and in Tuscany growers speak of healthy olives and little olive fly.
What is an "off" year for olives?
The olive tree tends to alternate between an "on" year (high output) and an "off" year (lower output). After a record year such as 2025/26 in Tunisia, and after a good year in Italy, the following season is often leaner.
What is the 2026/27 olive oil price forecast?
Several sources point to a possible rise in prices from autumn 2026, because of lower supply and higher costs. It is not a certainty: Italian stocks are high and opening prices are set after milling starts. Data and sources are in the prices section 🔴.
When will official estimates be available?
The International Olive Council will publish its first official forecasts for 2026/27 from November 2026. We will update this page then, always stating the date and source.
What is the difference between the marketing year and the harvest?
The marketing year is an administrative period (1 October-30 September in the EU). The harvest is when olives are actually picked and milled, and it changes every year with climate and variety. In 2026 the second started before the first.
Should you buy oil at the start of the campaign?
For a professional buyer it can be the right moment: in Tunisia, according to the Chamber of Producers, part of the output is sold under pressure at the start of the campaign for lack of storage, and with supply down, booking early reduces the risk of a price rise. Always require a written specification and a COA.
Does the EU quota apply to this campaign?
Yes. The tariff quota of 56,700 tonnes at reduced duty for Tunisian oil opens at the start of the campaign and usually fills quickly: if you import into Europe, act early. Details in the EU quota and SICAD guide.
How much does lampante oil cost this campaign?
In September 2026, price lists at origin show about €2.60/kg in Tunisia and 2.70-2.84 in Italy (ISMEA 🔴), well below extra virgin. Definition, uses and bulk buying in the lampante oil guide.
How often is this page updated?
Seasonally: when the November IOC estimates arrive, when opening prices are set, and at the end of milling. The date of the last update is shown at the top of the page.
Get ahead of the 2026/27 campaign
Receive campaign updates — data newsletter (email via Brevo), no spam: harvest, opening prices, quota.
Request a dated quote — secure a volume on the new campaign.
Order a sample — €30 per bottle, DHL delivery included worldwide; the amount is deducted from your first order.
See current prices — bulk FOB prices by origin, updated monthly.
Page in English. Data as of late September 2026: pre-harvest estimates, fast-changing, to be checked at source. EU quota 56,700 t = exact.
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- Olive Oil Production by Country 2026: Top Producers Ranked
- Olive oil importers: statistics by country
- Olive Oil Observatory: production, exports, 2026-2027
- Olive oil market price 2026: international quotes by origin