2026-2027 olive campaign: harvest tracking and opening

Q: When does the 2026-2027 campaign harvest take place?

Mainly from October 2026 to February 2027 in the Northern Hemisphere. As of July 2026, the olives are in the swelling phase : the harvest has not yet taken place.

Q: What will the price of olive oil be in 2026-2027?

Impossible to state as of July 2026: the opening prices will be set after the harvest (Nov. 2026 → March 2027), depending on the harvested volume (to be sourced ) . A good harvest eases rates, a weak harvest tightens them.

Q: Why don't you give a harvest figure for 2026-2027?

Because the harvest has not taken place . Publishing a precise volume would be fabricating data. We leave these cells "to be sourced " until pressing, then update.

Q: What will determine this campaign?

Above all the summer weather (heat, water), the natural alternation of olive trees and the plant-health state of the groves (olive fruit fly, bacterial diseases). These factors reveal themselves over the summer and autumn.

Q: Should I buy at the start of the campaign?

Often yes: the start of the campaign (Nov.–March) is conducive to negotiation and securing volumes, especially if the harvest looks set to be weak. A multi-year contract smooths volatility.

Q: Does the EU quota apply to this campaign?

Yes. The tariff quota of 56,700 tonnes at reduced duty for Tunisian oil opens at the start of the campaign and is generally consumed quickly: to be anticipated if you import into Europe.

Q: Where do prices stand today?

As of July 2026 (previous campaign): Tunisia from ~€3.80/kg FOB , Spain 4.1–4.5, Italy 6.5–7.0. Details and monthly update on the price observatory.

Q: Will the Tunisian harvest be good?

As of July 2026, it is too early to say (to be sourced ) . It will depend on the weather up to the harvest and on the position in the alternation cycle. Tracking updated here in season.

Q: How often is this page updated?

On a seasonal basis, as harvest announcements, first pressing data and opening-price setting come in.

Q: How can I secure a volume despite the uncertainty?

Via a contract aligned with the new harvest or multi-year , and by reserving early. Request a dated quote to lock in volume, category, incoterm and quota.

** Data as of: July 2026 — pre-harvest estimates, highly evolving, to be verified.**

The 2026-2027 olive campaign (harvest from October 2026 to February 2027) starts after the summer period, decisive for the filling of the olives. As of July 2026, the harvest has not yet taken place: any production or price figure for this campaign is a pre-harvest estimate, to be confirmed once pressing is under way. This page tracks the weather, the expected yield, the opening prices and the impact for buyers, with a focus on Tunisia and the Mediterranean basin.

This data is pre-harvest and therefore highly uncertain. A heatwave, a late drought or the alternation of olive trees can radically change the outcome between July and the end of the harvest. Do not make any commitment on the basis of these estimates alone: verify the date and the source, and wait for the first pressing data.

In brief

Status as of 07/2026: campaign upcoming, harvest from October 2026 → February 2027. No definitive production data.
Key summer factor: the summer weather (heat, water availability) determines the filling of the olives.
Opening prices: will be set at the start of the campaign (November 2026 → March 2027), depending on the harvested volume (to be sourced ).
Alternation: to watch — the olive tree tends to alternate between a strong year and a weak year.
Frequency: **seasonal ** tracking, updated as harvest announcements come in.

2026-2027 campaign calendar

Phase	Period	What's at stake	Status
Fruit set / swelling	June → Sept. 2026	Summer weather, olive filling	in progress
Veraison	Sept. → Oct. 2026	The olives change colour	upcoming
Harvest & pressing	Oct. 2026 → Feb. 2027	The campaign's volume and quality are revealed	upcoming
Setting of opening prices	Nov. 2026 → March 2027	Bulk FOB rates settle	upcoming
Exports & EU quota	from late 2026	EU quota 56,700 t opened	upcoming

Quick read: as of July 2026, we are in the olive swelling phase. It is the summer that will weigh most on the 2026-2027 harvest. The real figures will arrive with pressing, from October.

Expected harvest (pre-harvest estimates)

No definitive production estimate is available as of July 2026. What follows are working hypotheses, to be confirmed:

Zone	Signal to watch	Estimate	Status
Tunisia	Summer weather, alternation	to be sourced once the harvest is under way	to be sourced
Spain	Water reserves, heat	to be sourced	to be sourced
Italy	Plant health (fruit fly, bacterial diseases)	to be sourced	to be sourced
Greece	Weather in Crete / Peloponnese	to be sourced	to be sourced
World	Sum of the basins	wide range ~3.0 – 3.4 Mt (historical)	to be verified

We do not fabricate a 2026-2027 harvest figure: until pressing has taken place, these cells remain "to be sourced ". The historical orders of magnitude appear on the world production page.

Opening prices: what to expect

The opening prices of the 2026-2027 campaign will be set after the harvest, between November 2026 and March 2027. Two generic scenarios:

Good harvest → easing of rates: bulk FOB prices may fall, a favourable moment to secure volumes.
Weak harvest (drought, alternation) → tightness: bulk FOB prices may rise and stay high until the lean season.

For reference, the current rates (July 2026, previous campaign): Tunisia from ~€3.80/kg FOB, Spain 4.1–4.5, Italy 6.5–7.0 — details on the price observatory.

Buying tip: the start of the campaign is often the best time to negotiate. A contract aligned with the new harvest reduces exposure to lean-season volatility.

What it changes for buyers

Secure early — if the harvest is announced to be weak, reserving volumes from the start of the campaign protects against the risk of a price rise.
Watch the EU quota — the 56,700-tonne reduced-duty quota opens at the start of the campaign and is consumed quickly: anticipate if you import into Europe.
Organic window — since organic volumes are more limited, they often go first; to be anticipated even further.
Multi-year contracts — a commitment over several campaigns smooths the inter-campaign volatility linked to alternation.

Methodology & sources

Sources — IOC tracking (campaign estimates), Tunisian industry bodies (such as the ONH), professional price surveys, weather/agronomic bulletins.
Status — seasonal page: pre-harvest estimates are highly uncertain and highly evolving. Nothing is set until pressing is well under way.
Frequency — **seasonal ** update, as harvest announcements and price setting come in.
No fabricated data — cells without reliable data remain "to be sourced "; we do not publish a harvest figure until it is available.

Do you want to secure a volume for the 2026-2027 campaign? Request a dated quote and anticipate the EU quota.

Frequently asked questions

When does the 2026-2027 campaign harvest take place?

Mainly from October 2026 to February 2027 in the Northern Hemisphere. As of July 2026, the olives are in the swelling phase: the harvest has not yet taken place.

What will the price of olive oil be in 2026-2027?

Impossible to state as of July 2026: the opening prices will be set after the harvest (Nov. 2026 → March 2027), depending on the harvested volume (to be sourced ). A good harvest eases rates, a weak harvest tightens them.

Why don't you give a harvest figure for 2026-2027?

Because the harvest has not taken place. Publishing a precise volume would be fabricating data. We leave these cells "to be sourced " until pressing, then update.

What will determine this campaign?

Above all the summer weather (heat, water), the natural alternation of olive trees and the plant-health state of the groves (olive fruit fly, bacterial diseases). These factors reveal themselves over the summer and autumn.

Should I buy at the start of the campaign?

Often yes: the start of the campaign (Nov.–March) is conducive to negotiation and securing volumes, especially if the harvest looks set to be weak. A multi-year contract smooths volatility.

Does the EU quota apply to this campaign?

Yes. The tariff quota of 56,700 tonnes at reduced duty for Tunisian oil opens at the start of the campaign and is generally consumed quickly: to be anticipated if you import into Europe.

Where do prices stand today?

As of July 2026 (previous campaign): Tunisia from ~€3.80/kg FOB, Spain 4.1–4.5, Italy 6.5–7.0. Details and monthly update on the price observatory.

Will the Tunisian harvest be good?

As of July 2026, it is too early to say (to be sourced ). It will depend on the weather up to the harvest and on the position in the alternation cycle. Tracking updated here in season.

How often is this page updated?

On a **seasonal ** basis, as harvest announcements, first pressing data and opening-price setting come in.

How can I secure a volume despite the uncertainty?

Via a contract aligned with the new harvest or multi-year, and by reserving early. Request a dated quote to lock in volume, category, incoterm and quota.

Are these estimates reliable?

No, not yet: they are pre-harvest hypotheses, highly uncertain. They only become usable once pressing is under way. Always verify the date and the source.

Anticipate the 2026-2027 campaign

Receive the campaign briefings — data newsletter (email via Brevo), spam-free: harvest, opening prices, quota.

Request a dated quotation — secure a volume for the new campaign.

See current prices — bulk FOB rates by origin, updated every month.

Page in English. Data as of July 2026 — pre-harvest estimates, highly evolving, to be verified. EU quota 56,700 t = exact; no harvest figure fabricated.